Academic

Working Papers

Elections and party system fragmentation under high permissiveness: the case of Brazil (1998-2018)
The influence of electoral systems’ permissiveness in the number of political parties is one of the flagship questions of electoral studies. Still, despite the country’s extreme levels of legislative party system fragmentation, accounts of Brazil’s fragmentation have overlooked the role played by permissiveness, instead focusing on the formation of pre-electoral coalitions as the main driver of fragmentation. The usual argument is that variation in permissiveness across districts is not accompanied by variation in the effective number of electoral parties. In this paper, I argue that this is to be expected, but it does not tell the whole story: district magnitudes affect the effective number of legislative parties and the size and number of pre-electoral coalitions. In Duvergerian terms, there is no psychological effect – since even the smallest districts are big enough to hinder strategic voting -, but there is a mechanical one, which is taken into account by party elites. OLS and fixed-effect panel models support this account. The results complement the existing literature about fragmentation in Brazil: during 1998-2018, pre-electoral coordination in Brazil was conductive to high fragmentation, and permissiveness, alongside the rules governing pre-electoral coalition-making, is one of the reasons why.

Conference Papers

Coligações e Fragmentação Partidária: Notas para um Balanço. In: Luciano Irineu de Castro; Maurício Soares Bugarin; Fabiano Peruzzo Schwartz. (Org.). Anais do Simpósio Interdisciplinar sobre o Sistema Político Brasileiro e XI Jornada de Pesquisa e Extensão da Câmara dos Deputados. 1ed.: Editora Metrics, 2021, v. , p. 205-221.

Non-Academic

Op-eds

CartaCapital: Entre passado e futuro, o PT precisa ainda superar dois importantes desafios. Feb 2022.

Comments on media

UOL. Lula-Alckmin e Ciro-Marina: chapas de ex-presidenciáveis são incomuns. 2022.
UOL. Moro volta à política para tentar criar novo polo contra Lula e Bolsonaro. 2021.
UOL. Justiça e derrotas tiram Serra e Alckmin da eleição pela 1ª vez desde 1996. 2020.